A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Criminal Investigations

Potential violent criminals will often need to go through a sequence of preparatory steps before they can execute their plans. During this escalation process police have the opportunity evaluate threat posed by such people what know, observe and learn from intelligence reports about activities. In paper we customise three-level Bayesian hierarchical model describe process. This is able propagate both routine unexpected evidence in real time. We discuss how set up so that it calibrates domain expert judgments. The illustrations include hypothetical example based on potential vehicle terrorist attack.